Your decision brief · 2026-09-24

5 pre-declared thresholds are active.

Start with the calls, then follow each one through the observation, arithmetic, source, research support and limitation.

See the calls What changed →

Before any call: keep near-term spending and emergency cash out of market-risk assets. The dashboard cannot verify this for you, so it never labels a call personally suitable.

01 · Decisions

Start with what the model says to do

Every card keeps the recommendation short. Open its receipt to inspect every input, formula, source, theory and limitation.

See every past call →

01 Choose another structure Verified structural rule Research gate passed

U.S.-listed funds — check the Irish structure

Does it matter which exchange your world tracker is listed on?

If aggregate U.S.-situated assets could exceed US$60,000, compare an Irish-domiciled fund before choosing a U.S.-domiciled equivalent.

Model scorerule

Inputs available100%

Research statusVerified structural rule

What would change the call

Recheck this screen if the IRS threshold or treaty list changes, and calculate it from the investor's aggregate U.S.-situated assets. If that total cannot approach the threshold, fees, liquidity and tax withholding may dominate the choice.

Evidence receipt 4/4 inputs · method v1.6.1

Exact calculation Fixed structural rule

Fixed structural rule; no market score and no ladder shift.

Base stance avoid Ladder shift none Data coverage 100% Research review 2026-08-12

Base policy before today’s readings avoid · Verified structural rule

U.S. corporate stock is U.S.-situated property for a nonresident estate; stock of other corporations is outside U.S. situs under the Form 706-NA instructions.

Limit: This is a product-structure screen, not personal legal advice. The US$60,000 rule is an aggregate filing threshold for U.S.-situated assets; crossing it does not by itself establish tax due. Ownership structures, domicile, deductions, treaties and future law can change the result.

U.S. Internal Revenue Service Instructions for Form 706-NA The aggregate US$60,000 filing threshold and corporate-stock situs rules for a nonresident-not-a-citizen estate. Does not establish: That every estate above the filing threshold owes tax or that replacing one fund removes other U.S.-situated assets. U.S. Internal Revenue Service Estate and gift tax treaty list Thailand does not appear on the IRS estate-and-gift-tax treaty list.

opposes US estate tax filing threshold US$60,000 —

Declared ruleAggregate U.S.-situated assets plus specified adjusted gifts above US$60,000 generally trigger Form 706-NA filing for a nonresident-not-a-citizen estate; filing is not tax due

Inputs REFERENCE.usEstateThreshold

Verified structural rule

U.S. corporate stock is U.S.-situated property for a nonresident estate; stock of other corporations is outside U.S. situs under the Form 706-NA instructions.

opposes US–Thailand estate tax treaty none —

Declared ruleThailand is absent from the treaty list; supports a structural caution when aggregate U.S. situs could cross the threshold

Inputs IRS estate-and-gift treaty list

Verified structural rule

U.S. corporate stock is U.S.-situated property for a nonresident estate; stock of other corporations is outside U.S. situs under the Form 706-NA instructions.

supports Situs of an Irish UCITS holding outside the US —

Declared ruleNon-US corporate stock is outside US situs; supports the Irish structure

Inputs IRS Form 706-NA instructions

Verified structural rule

U.S. corporate stock is U.S.-situated property for a nonresident estate; stock of other corporations is outside U.S. situs under the Form 706-NA instructions.

neutral Cost of choosing the Irish version roughly 0.04–0.13pp a year —

Declared ruleApproximately 0.04–0.13pp per year; neutral versus the structural benefit

Inputs fund ongoing charges

Mixed evidence

Subtracting verified ongoing charges is arithmetic; deciding that a particular fee gap is worth a structural benefit is a house judgement.

Limit: The 0.2pp and 0.4pp bands do not include spreads, tracking difference, taxes, platform fees or an individual's holding period.

FINDASH Instrument and route register Issuer/exchange links and checked ongoing charges for the compared instruments. Does not establish: A universal fee-gap cutoff.

Full argument, implementation and costs →

02 Invest now Verified structural rule Research gate passed

ThaiESG — the last year of the enhanced deduction

Is there anything on a fixed deadline worth acting on?

If you are eligible and can accept five years of Thai-market risk, calculate the ThaiESG allowance before 31 December 2026: up to ฿300,000, subject to the 30% income cap.

Model scorerule

Inputs available100%

Research statusVerified structural rule

What would change the call

Nothing in the markets changes this. It changes on 1 January 2027, or earlier if a new regulation is gazetted — which is the only thing worth watching.

Evidence receipt 4/4 inputs · method v1.6.1

Exact calculation Fixed structural rule

Fixed structural rule; no market score and no ladder shift.

Base stance accumulate Ladder shift none Data coverage 100% Research review 2026-08-12

Base policy before today’s readings accumulate · Verified structural rule

The deduction cap, qualifying purchase window and holding period are current legal rules, not forecasts.

Limit: Eligibility and the value of a deduction depend on the taxpayer. The app is impersonal and does not calculate a user's tax benefit.

Securities and Exchange Commission, Thailand SEC announcement on enhanced Thai ESG terms The enhanced deduction period, 30% limit, ฿300,000 cap and five-year holding period. Does not establish: That every taxpayer should buy a ThaiESG fund. Royal Thai Government Gazette Ministerial Regulation No. 395 The controlling legal text for the enhanced terms. Thai Revenue Department 2024 personal income-tax return guide The Revenue Department's filing guidance confirms the 2024–2026 30%/฿300,000/five-year terms and the 2027–2032 30%/฿100,000/eight-year terms. Does not establish: A taxpayer's eligibility, usable allowance or eventual fund return.

supports Deduction ceiling while enhanced terms run ฿300,000 —

Declared ruleUp to 30% of assessable income, capped at ฿300,000, separately from the retirement ceiling

Inputs REFERENCE.thaiEsgCap · Thai Ministerial Regulation No. 395

Verified structural rule

The deduction cap, qualifying purchase window and holding period are current legal rules, not forecasts.

Limit: Eligibility and the value of a deduction depend on the taxpayer. The app is impersonal and does not calculate a user's tax benefit.

supports Holding period while enhanced terms run 5 years —

Declared rule5 years for qualifying purchases through 31 December 2026

Inputs Thai Ministerial Regulation No. 395

Verified structural rule

The deduction cap, qualifying purchase window and holding period are current legal rules, not forecasts.

Limit: Eligibility and the value of a deduction depend on the taxpayer. The app is impersonal and does not calculate a user's tax benefit.

supports Days until the enhanced terms lapse 98 days —

Declared rule≤ 180 days argues for acting; otherwise neutral

Inputs CALENDAR.thaiesg_window

Verified structural rule

The deduction cap, qualifying purchase window and holding period are current legal rules, not forecasts.

Limit: Eligibility and the value of a deduction depend on the taxpayer. The app is impersonal and does not calculate a user's tax benefit.

opposes SSF expired —

Declared ruleExpired after tax year 2024; always argues against treating it as a deduction

Inputs Thai tax-year eligibility

Verified structural rule

The deduction window is a dated tax rule.

Limit: A legal expiry is not a judgement about the investment merits of an existing SSF holding.

Thai Revenue Department Thai personal-allowance guide SSF purchases qualified only from 1 January 2020 through 31 December 2024. Does not establish: A judgement about continuing to hold existing SSF units.

Full argument, implementation and costs →

03 Invest now Mixed evidence Use with caution

The government savings bond

Where could baht go that you will not need for years and do not want exposed to shares?

For baht you can hold to maturity, compare the ten-year's fixed 2.80% coupon before the wallet sale closes. Do not use it as emergency cash.

Evidence warning. The mechanism is credible, but the exact decision boundary is a house rule. Use it as one input, not a trigger.

Model score+100

Inputs available67%

Research statusMixed evidence

What would change the call

Higher comparable rates would reduce the relative appeal of the fixed coupon and can lower the price available on an early sale. Recalculate against current deposit and policy rates before buying; do not assume the September issue repeats these terms.

Evidence receipt 2/3 inputs · method v1.6.1

Exact calculation +100.0 score

Score = sum of known pushes (4) ÷ known-test ceiling (4) × 100. At +30/−30 the base stance moves at most one rung.

Base stance accumulate Ladder shift +1 Data coverage 67% Research review 2026-08-12

Base policy before today’s readings accumulate · Mixed evidence

Comparing a verified fixed coupon with current policy and deposit rates is arithmetic; the amount of spread required before acting is a preference rule.

Limit: The 0.75pp and 1.5pp bands are house rules. A government bond and a bank deposit do not have identical legal protection, liquidity or interest-rate exposure; the comparison also omits personal cash needs and tax status.

Thailand Public Debt Management Office Aom Plus savings bond FY2569 issue terms The channel-specific tickers, fixed coupons, sale windows, eligibility and purchase limits used by the card. Does not establish: That a ten-year bond is interchangeable with a deposit or suitable for emergency cash. Bank of Thailand Interest-rate statistics The comparison rates used by the rule. Does not establish: The project's minimum spread or a recommendation to exchange liquidity for duration.

supports Bond coupon over the policy rate +1.80pp +50.0 pts

Declared rule> 1.5pp supports with double weight; > 0.75pp supports; otherwise argues against

Inputs REFERENCE.savingsBond10y · th.policy_rate

Mixed evidence

Comparing a verified fixed coupon with current policy and deposit rates is arithmetic; the amount of spread required before acting is a preference rule.

supports Bond coupon over a 12-month bank deposit +2.00pp over 0.80% +50.0 pts

Declared rule> 1.5pp supports with double weight; > 0.75pp supports; otherwise argues against

Inputs REFERENCE.savingsBond10y · REFERENCE.thbFixed12m

Mixed evidence

Comparing a verified fixed coupon with current policy and deposit rates is arithmetic; the amount of spread required before acting is a preference rule.

missing Direction of the next policy move awaiting history excluded

Declared ruleUnavailable; the engine does not forecast a policy decision

Inputs Bank of Thailand MPC decision

Experimental house rule

The engine explicitly makes no central-bank forecast and therefore excludes this input.

Limit: This row documents a missing capability. It supplies no evidence and contributes nothing to the score.

Bank of Thailand Monetary Policy Committee decisions The authoritative source once a policy decision is made. Does not establish: A forecast of the next decision.

Full argument, implementation and costs →

04 Invest now Conflicts with own history Research hold

Where idle cash sits

Baht or dollars for money you might need within a few years?

Split it. Money you will spend in Thailand within about five years stays in baht; genuinely long-horizon idle cash earns materially more in dollars, and you are paid to wait.

Evidence warning. At least one material rule conflicts with the project's own replay. Treat this as context, not an instruction.

Model score+33

Inputs available75%

Research statusConflicts with own history

What would change the call

The carry gap narrowing back inside −150bp removes most of the reason to hold dollars for yield. A dollar above 37 baht makes buying them expensive enough to wait.

Evidence receipt 3/4 inputs · method v1.6.1

Exact calculation +33.3 score

Score = sum of known pushes (2) ÷ known-test ceiling (6) × 100. At +30/−30 the base stance moves at most one rung.

Base stance hold Ladder shift +1 Data coverage 75% Research review 2026-08-12

Base policy before today’s readings hold · Research-supported

Matching near-term assets to the currency of known spending reduces the exchange-rate risk of meeting those liabilities.

Limit: The one-step penalty is a conservative product rule, not a personalised asset-liability model; the app does not know the user's actual liabilities.

Bank for International Settlements Foreign-currency liquidity management principles The general risk-management principle of matching currency cash flows. Does not establish: A one-rung portfolio adjustment for every Thai resident.

supports Carry gap, Thai policy rate minus US overnight -287bp +33.3 pts

Declared rule< −2.5pp supports dollars with double weight; < −1.5pp supports; > 0 argues against

Inputs th.carry.vs_fed

Conflicts with own history

The policy-rate gap is the observable income differential between baht and dollar cash, but uncovered interest parity is unreliable as a short-run spot-FX forecast.

Limit: The −1.5pp/−2.5pp currency-pressure bands are house rules. The internal replay supported dollar strength at three months but reversed at twelve months.

Bank for International Settlements Long-horizon uncovered interest parity Theoretical link and horizon dependence between interest differentials and exchange rates. Does not establish: A deterministic short-run USD/THB forecast from the policy gap. FINDASH FINDASH tripwire replay artifact Nine firings since 2018 produced a median +4.4% USD/THB move at three months. Does not establish: Median twelve-month move was −2.1%; three of six eligible six-month cases were false positives.

supports Dollar against the baht, versus its 2016 average 33.43 +16.7 pts

Declared ruleRatio to 35.30 < 0.95 supports buying dollars; > 1.05 argues against

Inputs th.fx.usdthb

Experimental house rule

Dollar conditions matter for emerging markets, but one bilateral exchange rate and one historical anchor are a narrow proxy.

Limit: 35.30, 0.97 and 1.05 are house anchors. They are not fair-value estimates and do not identify causality.

Bank for International Settlements Exchange-rate puzzles: evidence from rigidly verified data Exchange-rate prediction is difficult even with standard macro variables. Does not establish: USD/THB versus its 2016 mean as a validated Asia timing rule.

opposes Currency you actually spend baht -16.7 pts

Declared ruleBaht spending permanently argues one step against dollar cash

Inputs resident spending currency: THB

Research-supported

Matching near-term assets to the currency of known spending reduces the exchange-rate risk of meeting those liabilities.

Limit: The one-step penalty is a conservative product rule, not a personalised asset-liability model; the app does not know the user's actual liabilities.

missing Direction of both policy rates awaiting history excluded

Declared ruleUnavailable; the engine does not forecast either central bank

Inputs th.policy_rate · us.rates.sofr

Experimental house rule

The engine explicitly makes no central-bank forecast and therefore excludes this input.

Limit: This row documents a missing capability. It supplies no evidence and contributes nothing to the score.

Bank of Thailand Monetary Policy Committee decisions The authoritative source once a policy decision is made. Does not establish: A forecast of the next decision.

Full argument, implementation and costs →

Show the other 7 standing calls

Invest now Conflicts with own history Research hold

Own the world

Keep adding to one broad global fund on a fixed schedule. This is the anchor holding; everything else on this page is a variation around it.

5/6 inputs available · score +20

Evidence receipt 5/6 inputs · method v1.6.1

Exact calculation +20.0 score

Score = sum of known pushes (2) ÷ known-test ceiling (10) × 100. At +30/−30 the base stance moves at most one rung.

Base stance accumulate Ladder shift none Data coverage 83% Research review 2026-08-12

Base policy before today’s readings accumulate · Research-supported

Broad diversification can reduce concentration risk, and a longer time horizon can make volatile assets more tolerable.

Limit: The source explicitly says asset allocation is personal. FINDASH's accumulate base assumes money is genuinely unneeded for at least ten years; the app cannot verify that assumption or the user's ability to bear loss.

U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission / Investor.gov Asset Allocation and Diversification Diversification as risk reduction and time horizon/risk tolerance as core allocation inputs. Does not establish: A universal instruction to buy equities now or a particular equity percentage.

supports Global equities versus their 200-day average +5.1% vs 200-day average +10.0 pts

Declared rule> +2% supports; < −2% argues against; ±2% is neutral

Inputs xx.equity.world_proxy

Research-supported

Medium-term trend following has published historical support across asset classes.

Limit: The cited work studies a 10-month moving average. FINDASH's 200-day proxy and ±2% no-flap band are implementation choices, not thresholds validated by that paper.

Meb Faber / SSRN A Quantitative Approach to Tactical Asset Allocation Historical evidence for a simple 10-month trend rule across broad asset classes. Does not establish: The exact ±2% dead-band or a promise of future excess returns. SSRN research replication Market Timing with Moving Averages Independent examination of moving-average timing. Does not establish: Treating a favourable backtest as free of model-selection or data-mining risk.

opposes US 10-year real yield 2.63% -10.0 pts

Declared rule< 2.2% supports; > 2.5% argues against

Inputs us.rates.10y_real

Conflicts with own history

A higher real discount rate lowers the present value of distant cash flows and raises the return available from inflation-protected government debt.

Limit: No primary source found validates 2.2% or 2.5% as an equity or gold trading boundary. The project's one historical >2.5% episode moved opposite the declared Nasdaq consequence, so this rule must not carry a call by itself.

Federal Reserve Board Financial Stability Report — Asset Valuations Discount-rate mechanics and earnings yield minus real yield as a rough valuation gauge. Does not establish: A universal market-timing cutoff at 2.2% or 2.5%. FINDASH FINDASH tripwire replay artifact One >2.5% firing since 2015 can be replayed. Does not establish: Nasdaq rose 21.7% at three months and 40.7% at twelve months; the one eligible case was a false positive for the declared down direction.

neutral US equity earnings yield minus real bond yield +1.54pp 0.0 pts

Declared ruleWith ≥60 monthly vintages: > 75th percentile supports, < 25th argues against; before then: > 3pp supports, < 1pp argues against

Inputs us.equity.excess_yield

Mixed evidence

The spread is a rough comparison between equity cash-flow yield and the real government-bond alternative.

Limit: It is not a complete equity-risk-premium model. The 1pp/3pp bands and five-year percentile cutoffs are house rules and have no published validation here.

Federal Reserve Board Financial Stability Report — Asset Valuations Use of the forward earnings-to-price ratio minus an expected real Treasury yield as a rough valuation measure. Does not establish: FINDASH's absolute or percentile decision bands.

supports High-yield credit spread 2.73pp +10.0 pts

Declared rule< 4pp supports; > 6pp argues against

Inputs us.credit.hy_oas

Research-supported

Corporate credit spreads contain information about financial conditions and future activity; the Fed's excess bond premium tries to separate sentiment from expected defaults.

Limit: The 4pp and 6pp high-yield cutoffs are house bands. Credit spreads can be coincident, can reverse quickly, and do not mechanically forecast equity returns.

Federal Reserve Board Updating the Recession Risk and the Excess Bond Premium The excess bond premium as a measure of corporate-credit risk appetite with macro forecasting information. Does not establish: FINDASH's 4pp/6pp high-yield thresholds or a direct buy/sell instruction.

supports Volatility index 14.2 +10.0 pts

Declared rule< 20 supports; > 28 argues against

Inputs us.vix

Mixed evidence

VIX is a rules-based measure of near-term volatility implied by S&P 500 options, not a forecast of market direction.

Limit: 20 and 28 are editorial risk bands, not Cboe thresholds. Low volatility is not an official all-clear and high volatility is not by itself a sell signal.

Cboe Global Markets VIX FAQ and methodology overview What VIX measures and how the index is constructed from option prices. Does not establish: Directional equity calls at 20 or 28.

missing Net dollar liquidity, 13-week change awaiting history excluded

Declared ruleUnavailable until enough history exists to score the 13-week change against its declared distribution

Inputs net_usd_liquidity

Experimental house rule

Treasury cash and reverse-repo flows affect reserve balances, but the combined net-liquidity expression is a market heuristic rather than an official Federal Reserve indicator.

Limit: The balance-sheet identity is not evidence of a stable causal asset-return rule. The related internal tripwire has only 13 firings and incomplete forward windows.

Federal Reserve Board Fluctuations in the Treasury General Account and Their Effect on the Fed's Balance Sheet The reserve mechanics of changes in the Treasury General Account. Does not establish: WALCL − TGA − ON RRP as an equity-forecasting model. Federal Reserve Bank of New York Reverse Repo Agreements The mechanics and policy role of the overnight reverse-repo facility. Does not establish: A +1 z-score asset-allocation threshold. FINDASH FINDASH tripwire replay artifact The related +1 z-score tripwire fired 13 times since 2015; median S&P 500 twelve-month return was +17.8%. Does not establish: Only seven firings had a six-month outcome and two were false positives; this is a small observational sample, not causal validation.

Full argument →

Wait Experimental house rule Research hold

High-dividend Thai funds

Do not add here; if it has grown into a large position, prefer the plain index fund. The costs are certain and the yield advantage is not.

3/3 inputs available · score -67

Evidence receipt 3/3 inputs · method v1.6.1

Exact calculation -66.7 score

Score = sum of known pushes (-4) ÷ known-test ceiling (6) × 100. At +30/−30 the base stance moves at most one rung.

Base stance hold Ladder shift −1 Data coverage 100% Research review 2026-08-12

Base policy before today’s readings hold · Mixed evidence

Subtracting verified ongoing charges is arithmetic; deciding that a particular fee gap is worth a structural benefit is a house judgement.

Limit: The 0.2pp and 0.4pp bands do not include spreads, tracking difference, taxes, platform fees or an individual's holding period.

FINDASH Instrument and route register Issuer/exchange links and checked ongoing charges for the compared instruments. Does not establish: A universal fee-gap cutoff.

opposes Ongoing charge versus the broad Thai index fund +0.46pp a year -33.3 pts

Declared rule> 0.4pp argues against with double weight; > 0.2pp argues against

Inputs SET:1DIV TER · SET:TDEX TER

Mixed evidence

Subtracting verified ongoing charges is arithmetic; deciding that a particular fee gap is worth a structural benefit is a house judgement.

Limit: The 0.2pp and 0.4pp bands do not include spreads, tracking difference, taxes, platform fees or an individual's holding period.

FINDASH Instrument and route register Issuer/exchange links and checked ongoing charges for the compared instruments. Does not establish: A universal fee-gap cutoff.

opposes Thai dividend withholding 10% -16.7 pts

Declared rule10% withholding always argues against a dividend-maximising implementation

Inputs Thai dividend withholding rate

Verified structural rule

The withholding rate is a tax input. How much it should change an allocation depends on the investor and the alternative implementation.

Limit: Tax treatment can depend on election, filing and taxpayer facts; this app does not calculate personal tax.

Thai Revenue Department Personal income tax guidance The published treatment of dividend income for individuals. Does not establish: A universal preference for low-dividend funds.

opposes Thai rice priced against Vietnamese +12.3% -16.7 pts

Declared rule> 10% argues against

Inputs th.food.rice_premium_vn

Experimental house rule

Relative export prices can affect competitiveness, but translating a rice-price premium into an equity allocation is a house hypothesis.

Limit: The 10% boundary is not externally validated and the current series is static, so no historical decision record exists.

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Rice market monitor International monitoring of rice prices and trade competitiveness. Does not establish: A 10% threshold for Thai equity returns.

Full argument →

Wait Conflicts with own history Research hold

Own Thailand

Hold enough Thai equity to match the baht bills you will actually pay, and no more. The readings do not support adding here right now.

4/4 inputs available · score -50

Evidence receipt 4/4 inputs · method v1.6.1

Exact calculation -50.0 score

Score = sum of known pushes (-4) ÷ known-test ceiling (8) × 100. At +30/−30 the base stance moves at most one rung.

Base stance hold Ladder shift −1 Data coverage 100% Research review 2026-08-12

Base policy before today’s readings hold · Mixed evidence

Currency matching can reduce risk for known baht liabilities, while concentrating investments in the home market creates separate company and country risk.

Limit: The hold base does not specify a suitable percentage and cannot see the user's actual baht liabilities, employment exposure, property or existing holdings.

U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission / Investor.gov Asset Allocation and Diversification Diversification and personal time horizon/risk tolerance as allocation constraints. Does not establish: A universal Thailand equity allocation for a baht spender. Bank for International Settlements Foreign-currency liquidity management principles The general risk-management principle of matching currency cash flows. Does not establish: Using Thai equities as a precise hedge for household spending.

opposes Carry gap, Thai policy rate minus US overnight -287bp -25.0 pts

Declared rule< −2.5pp argues against with double weight; < −1.5pp argues against

Inputs th.carry.vs_fed

Conflicts with own history

The policy-rate gap is the observable income differential between baht and dollar cash, but uncovered interest parity is unreliable as a short-run spot-FX forecast.

Limit: The −1.5pp/−2.5pp currency-pressure bands are house rules. The internal replay supported dollar strength at three months but reversed at twelve months.

opposes Brent crude $114.89 -25.0 pts

Declared rule< $90 supports; > $95 argues against with double weight

Inputs xx.commodity.brent

Mixed evidence

Higher imported energy costs can worsen inflation, income and the trade balance for a net oil importer such as Thailand.

Limit: $90/$95 and the four-week persistence rule are house thresholds. Only two internal episodes fired, so the observed result is too small to validate them.

International Monetary Fund Thailand Article IV Consultation Official macroeconomic surveillance of Thailand's exposure to external energy prices. Does not establish: A $95 equity-market cutoff. FINDASH FINDASH tripwire replay artifact Two >$95 sustained episodes since 2015 had a median twelve-month SET-proxy return of −4.9%. Does not establish: Only one episode had a six-month outcome; the sample cannot establish a stable rule.

opposes Thai rice priced against Vietnamese +12.3% -12.5 pts

Declared rule> 10% argues against

Inputs th.food.rice_premium_vn

Experimental house rule

Relative export prices can affect competitiveness, but translating a rice-price premium into an equity allocation is a house hypothesis.

Limit: The 10% boundary is not externally validated and the current series is static, so no historical decision record exists.

supports Thai equities versus their 200-day average +9.0% vs 200-day average +12.5 pts

Declared rule> +2% supports; < −2% argues against; ±2% is neutral

Inputs th.equity.set

Research-supported

Medium-term trend following has published historical support across asset classes.

Limit: The cited work studies a 10-month moving average. FINDASH's 200-day proxy and ±2% no-flap band are implementation choices, not thresholds validated by that paper.

Full argument →

Wait Experimental house rule Research hold

Inflation protection

Monitor rather than buy. Protection is priced at roughly what history suggests, and the version available to you protects against American inflation, not Thai inflation.

2/3 inputs available · score 0

Evidence receipt 2/3 inputs · method v1.6.1

Exact calculation 0.0 score

Score = sum of known pushes (0) ÷ known-test ceiling (4) × 100. At +30/−30 the base stance moves at most one rung.

Base stance watch Ladder shift none Data coverage 67% Research review 2026-08-12

Base policy before today’s readings watch · Mixed evidence

TIPS principal adjusts with US CPI. The nominal-minus-real yield breakeven also contains inflation-risk and liquidity premia, so it is not pure expected inflation.

Limit: 2.0% and 2.5% are house valuation bands. US CPI protection is an imperfect hedge for a household spending baht in Thailand.

U.S. Treasury Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities The CPI adjustment and principal-floor mechanics of TIPS. Federal Reserve Board The Information Content of the Embedded Deflation Option in TIPS Why breakeven inflation embeds more than expected inflation. Does not establish: FINDASH's 2.0%/2.5% allocation bands.

neutral US 10-year breakeven inflation 2.33% 0.0 pts

Declared rule< 2.0% supports; > 2.5% argues against

Inputs us.rates.be10

Mixed evidence

TIPS principal adjusts with US CPI. The nominal-minus-real yield breakeven also contains inflation-risk and liquidity premia, so it is not pure expected inflation.

Limit: 2.0% and 2.5% are house valuation bands. US CPI protection is an imperfect hedge for a household spending baht in Thailand.

neutral Baht Import Burden Index 162.8 0.0 pts

Declared ruleObserved without a decision threshold until sufficient history exists

Inputs th.import_burden

Experimental house rule

Converting imported commodity prices into baht is valid arithmetic; combining them into this exact index is a FINDASH construction.

Limit: The index has no decision threshold and no validated mapping to household inflation or asset returns.

FINDASH FINDASH indicator register The executable formula, inputs, provenance classification and limitations of this adapted indicator. Does not establish: External validation; this is project documentation.

missing Thai inflation-linked alternatives awaiting history excluded

Declared ruleUnavailable until a verified retail route exists

Inputs retail access to Thai inflation-linked bonds

Experimental house rule

A product cannot be recommended as an implementation until a current, reachable retail route is verified.

Limit: Unavailable is not evidence against inflation-linked bonds; it means this app has not verified a Thai retail route.

FINDASH Instrument and route register The project's rule that unverified access stays unavailable rather than being guessed. Does not establish: That no product exists outside the verified universe.

Full argument →

Stay invested — don't add Conflicts with own history Research hold

Gold as insurance

Keep a standing allocation and add to it patiently rather than urgently. Gold's job here is insurance against things the rest of the page cannot price.

5/5 inputs available · score -10

Evidence receipt 5/5 inputs · method v1.6.1

Exact calculation -10.0 score

Score = sum of known pushes (-1) ÷ known-test ceiling (10) × 100. At +30/−30 the base stance moves at most one rung.

Base stance hold Ladder shift none Data coverage 100% Research review 2026-08-12

Base policy before today’s readings hold · Mixed evidence

Gold can diversify particular stress regimes, but it is volatile and is not a reliable practical-horizon inflation hedge.

Limit: Refining concentration, official buying above 20%, and an export-control countdown are narrative risk indicators—not validated gold allocation rules.

National Bureau of Economic Research The Golden Dilemma Long-run analysis of gold's inflation relationship and valuation difficulty. Does not establish: Gold as a dependable short- or medium-horizon inflation hedge. International Monetary Fund Gold in Central Bank Reserves Gold's contingent reserve-diversification and no-credit-risk characteristics. Does not establish: FINDASH's 20% mine-supply or refining-concentration thresholds.

opposes Gold versus its 10-month average -8.8% vs 10-month average -10.0 pts

Declared rule> +2% supports; < −2% argues against; ±2% is neutral

Inputs xx.commodity.gold

Research-supported

Medium-term trend following has published historical support across asset classes.

Limit: The cited work studies a 10-month moving average. FINDASH's 200-day proxy and ±2% no-flap band are implementation choices, not thresholds validated by that paper.

opposes US 10-year real yield 2.63% -20.0 pts

Declared rule< 2.2% supports; > 2.5% argues against with double weight

Inputs us.rates.10y_real

Conflicts with own history

A higher real discount rate lowers the present value of distant cash flows and raises the return available from inflation-protected government debt.

neutral China's share of critical-mineral refining 66.2% average of eight 0.0 pts

Declared rule> 70% average supports holding insurance

Inputs eight xx.refine.* static series

Mixed evidence

Gold can diversify particular stress regimes, but it is volatile and is not a reliable practical-horizon inflation hedge.

Limit: Refining concentration, official buying above 20%, and an export-control countdown are narrative risk indicators—not validated gold allocation rules.

supports Central bank buying, as a share of new mine supply 26.2% +10.0 pts

Declared rule> 20% supports

Inputs xx.gold.official_absorption

Mixed evidence

Gold can diversify particular stress regimes, but it is volatile and is not a reliable practical-horizon inflation hedge.

Limit: Refining concentration, official buying above 20%, and an export-control countdown are narrative risk indicators—not validated gold allocation rules.

supports Days until the nearest export-control expiry 47 days +10.0 pts

Declared rule≤ 180 days supports holding insurance

Inputs CALENDAR.export_control_expiry

Mixed evidence

Gold can diversify particular stress regimes, but it is volatile and is not a reliable practical-horizon inflation hedge.

Limit: Refining concentration, official buying above 20%, and an export-control countdown are narrative risk indicators—not validated gold allocation rules.

Full argument →

Stay invested — don't add Experimental house rule Research hold

Own Asia beyond Thailand

Hold a modest position and add slowly. The currency backdrop helps; the growth signal that would confirm it is not readable at the moment, so this deserves patience rather than conviction.

2/4 inputs available · score 0

Evidence receipt 2/4 inputs · method v1.6.1

Exact calculation 0.0 score

Score = sum of known pushes (0) ÷ known-test ceiling (4) × 100. At +30/−30 the base stance moves at most one rung.

Base stance hold Ladder shift none Data coverage 50% Research review 2026-08-12

Base policy before today’s readings hold · Experimental house rule

A country or regional overlay is an active concentration choice around an already diversified core.

Limit: The hold base and every tilt size are house policy. The app has no user portfolio weights, so it cannot know whether a displayed holding diversifies or duplicates what is already owned.

U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission / Investor.gov Asset Allocation and Diversification The need to diversify across and within asset categories based on personal circumstances. Does not establish: FINDASH's US, Asia or Thailand tilt sizes and base stances.

supports Dollar against the baht, versus its 2016 average 33.43 · +5% versus 35.30 +25.0 pts

Declared ruleRatio to 35.30 < 0.97 supports; > 1.05 argues against

Inputs th.fx.usdthb

Experimental house rule

Dollar conditions matter for emerging markets, but one bilateral exchange rate and one historical anchor are a narrow proxy.

Limit: 35.30, 0.97 and 1.05 are house anchors. They are not fair-value estimates and do not identify causality.

opposes India's strategic oil cover 9.5 days -25.0 pts

Declared rule< 15 days argues against

Inputs in.oil.days_cover

Mixed evidence

Low emergency oil stocks reduce the buffer available during a supply disruption for a net importer.

Limit: The exact 15-day equity-sizing cutoff is a house judgement, and the current input is a static snapshot rather than a replayable series.

International Energy Agency Oil security policy Why emergency oil stocks provide a buffer against supply disruption. Does not establish: A 15-day investment threshold for India equities.

missing Global growth pulse awaiting history excluded

Declared ruleUnavailable while the copper signal is structurally distorted

Inputs xx.commodity.copper · xx.metals.comex_lme_copper

Experimental house rule

Growth-sensitive commodities and market momentum can provide context, but these tests are deliberately excluded while the required clean history is absent.

Limit: An unavailable input contributes nothing. Its existence in the declared model must not be read as evidence for today's call.

Meb Faber / SSRN A Quantitative Approach to Tactical Asset Allocation Historical use of price trend as a risk-management input. Does not establish: A signal that has not been computed from sufficient observations.

missing Regional equity momentum awaiting history excluded

Declared ruleUnavailable until 200 daily observations exist for each market

Inputs regional equity closes

Experimental house rule

Growth-sensitive commodities and market momentum can provide context, but these tests are deliberately excluded while the required clean history is absent.

Limit: An unavailable input contributes nothing. Its existence in the declared model must not be read as evidence for today's call.

Full argument →

Stay invested — don't add Conflicts with own history Research hold

Own America, but no more than the world already gives you

Hold what a global fund already gives you. A separate S&P 500 or Nasdaq holding on top of that is a concentration decision, and the cost of money argues against making it now.

4/4 inputs available · score 0

Evidence receipt 4/4 inputs · method v1.6.1

Exact calculation 0.0 score

Score = sum of known pushes (0) ÷ known-test ceiling (8) × 100. At +30/−30 the base stance moves at most one rung.

Base stance hold Ladder shift none Data coverage 100% Research review 2026-08-12

Base policy before today’s readings hold · Experimental house rule

A country or regional overlay is an active concentration choice around an already diversified core.

Limit: The hold base and every tilt size are house policy. The app has no user portfolio weights, so it cannot know whether a displayed holding diversifies or duplicates what is already owned.

opposes US 10-year real yield 2.63% -25.0 pts

Declared rule< 2.2% supports; > 2.5% argues against with double weight

Inputs us.rates.10y_real

Conflicts with own history

A higher real discount rate lowers the present value of distant cash flows and raises the return available from inflation-protected government debt.

neutral US equity earnings yield minus real bond yield +1.54pp 0.0 pts

Declared ruleWith ≥60 monthly vintages: > 75th percentile supports, < 25th argues against; before then: > 3pp supports, < 1pp argues against

Inputs us.equity.excess_yield

Mixed evidence

The spread is a rough comparison between equity cash-flow yield and the real government-bond alternative.

Limit: It is not a complete equity-risk-premium model. The 1pp/3pp bands and five-year percentile cutoffs are house rules and have no published validation here.

supports Volatility index 14.2 +12.5 pts

Declared rule< 20 supports; > 28 argues against

Inputs us.vix

Mixed evidence

VIX is a rules-based measure of near-term volatility implied by S&P 500 options, not a forecast of market direction.

Limit: 20 and 28 are editorial risk bands, not Cboe thresholds. Low volatility is not an official all-clear and high volatility is not by itself a sell signal.

Cboe Global Markets VIX FAQ and methodology overview What VIX measures and how the index is constructed from option prices. Does not establish: Directional equity calls at 20 or 28.

supports S&P 500 versus its 200-day average +7.1% vs 200-day average +12.5 pts

Declared rule> +2% supports; < −2% argues against; ±2% is neutral

Inputs us.equity.spx

Research-supported

Medium-term trend following has published historical support across asset classes.

Limit: The cited work studies a 10-month moving average. FINDASH's 200-day proxy and ±2% no-flap band are implementation choices, not thresholds validated by that paper.

Full argument →

02 · Why

The three strongest links in today’s model story

These arrows show model logic, not proof of causation. Each observation can be followed back to its stored series.

Observation US estate tax filing threshold: US$60,000

REFERENCE.usEstateThreshold

Model implication This structural rule fixes the call; no market score or ladder shift is used. rule · Verified structural rule

Call affected Choose another structure · U.S.-listed funds — check the Irish structure

Observation Deduction ceiling while enhanced terms run: ฿300,000

REFERENCE.thaiEsgCapThai Ministerial Regulation No. 395

Model implication This structural rule fixes the call; no market score or ladder shift is used. rule · Verified structural rule

Call affected Invest now · ThaiESG — the last year of the enhanced deduction

Observation Bond coupon over the policy rate: +1.80pp

REFERENCE.savingsBond10yth.policy_rate

Model implication This rule pushes the model one step toward adding or keeping the exposure. +50.0 score points · Mixed evidence

Call affected Invest now · The government savings bond

03 · Change

What moved since the stored baseline

Largest condition-score changes first. A bar shows the size and direction of the change; it does not claim the move caused an asset return.

Thailand conditions 2026-09-23 → 2026-09-24 · 100% input coverage

-22+6-16

The AI build-out 2026-09-23 → 2026-09-24 · 99% input coverage

-46-3-49

Appetite for risk 2026-09-23 → 2026-09-24 · 100% input coverage

+34-3+31

Dollar pressure 2026-09-23 → 2026-09-24 · 100% input coverage

-42-1-43

Cost of money 2026-09-23 → 2026-09-24 · 100% input coverage

-17+1-16

Scores share a −100 to +100 convention, but each is standardised against its own input history. Cross-gauge comparisons are directional, not dollar forecasts.

04 · Watch

The lines closest to changing a decision

Crossed and near thresholds come first, followed by the quiet lines nearest to firing. Responses were written before the readings moved.

All threshold rules →

crossed THB carry gap (BOT − Fed)-287bp · fires below −250bp Long-dated savings earn more in dollars.

Arithmetic: Thai policy rate 1.00% − SOFR 3.87%

Pre-declared response: A deeply negative gap means Thai deposits pay far less than dollar deposits, and the baht tends to drift weaker while that lasts. Two consequences for a baht earner: money you will not spend for years earns more in USD than in a Thai savings account, and USD assets you already own need less currency hedging because the currency is working for you rather than against you. The mirror image applies to borrowing — the cheap currency to owe is the one paying the lower rate, which here is baht.

Lineage: th.carry.vs_fed

Internal replay: 9 firings since 2018; median 3-month USD/THB move +4.4%; median 12-month move -2.1%; false positives 3/6. Small observational samples are not causal proof.

crossed India strategic oil cover < 15 days9.5 days · fires below 15 days Size any India fund knowing there is no buffer.

Arithmetic: IEA / national stockholding, 2026

Pre-declared response: India absorbs an oil shock through the rupee and the fuel bill, not through reserves. If you hold an India equity fund, treat a Brent spike as a direct hit to it and size that position knowing there is no buffer behind it.

Lineage: in.oil.days_cover

Internal replay: No fireable history. This response is judgement, not a statistically validated rule.

crossed Thai rice priced > 10% above Vietnamese+12.3% · fires above +10% Do not buy the Thai rural-recovery story yet.

Arithmetic: Thai vs Vietnamese 5% broken FOB quotes, Jul 2026

Pre-declared response: Thai rice is losing on price, which is a slow drag on the rural economy, the export line of the trade balance and eventually the baht. For you this is a reason not to be overweight Thai domestic-consumption stocks on a rural-recovery story — the story needs this number to fall first.

Lineage: th.food.rice_premium_vn

Internal replay: No fireable history. This response is judgement, not a statistically validated rule.

crossed US 10-year real yield > 2.5%2.63% · fires above 2.50% Above the line, plain Treasuries compete with everything.

Arithmetic: FRED DFII10, 2026-09-22

Pre-declared response: Above 2.5% the US government pays a real return after inflation — the highest-quality competition anything in your portfolio faces. Two things you likely hold feel it: expensive growth and tech funds, whose value sits mostly in distant future profits, and gold, which pays no interest and therefore looks worse the more safe cash yields. This is the condition under which plain US Treasuries are worth owning on their own merits, and under which adding to gold rewards patience over urgency. Below 2.2% the argument reverses.

Lineage: us.rates.10y_real

Internal replay: 1 firings since 2015; median 3-month Nasdaq 100 move +21.7%; median 12-month move +40.7%; false positives 1/1. Small observational samples are not causal proof.

crossed US SPR below 300mn bbl (structural buyer)285mn bbl · 39% of peak · fires below 300mn bbl Argues against betting on cheap oil, not for expensive.

Arithmetic: EIA, 2026-07-17; peak fill 726.6mn bbl (2010)

Pre-declared response: A half-empty US reserve means one large, price-insensitive buyer standing under the oil market. That is mildly bad for a Thai household budget and mildly good for any energy exposure you own. It argues against betting on cheap oil, not for betting on expensive oil.

Lineage: us.oil.spr

Internal replay: 1 firings since 1982; median 3-month Brent crude move not enough history; median 12-month move not enough history; false positives 0/0. Small observational samples are not causal proof.

close Brent > $95 sustained 4 weeks$114.89 · fires above $95 for 4 weeks Insurance is cheap while this is dormant. That is the point.

Arithmetic: FRED DCOILBRENTEU, 2026-09-22 · week 0 of 4 · -17% below trigger

Pre-declared response: Thailand imports nearly all its oil, so sustained $95 Brent is a tax on the country you live in: fuel bill up, baht down, SET earnings squeezed — three hits from one event, and your salary is exposed to the same one. That concentration is the risk, not the oil price itself. The standard offsets are assets that gain when this happens: unhedged USD holdings, or energy exposure. Both are far cheaper to own before the trigger than after it.

Lineage: xx.commodity.brent

Internal replay: 2 firings since 2015; median 3-month Thai equities (SET proxy) move +1.6%; median 12-month move -4.9%; false positives 0/1. Small observational samples are not causal proof.

05 · Context

The environment behind the calls

Context stays below decisions so it can explain a call without becoming a wall of numbers.

Explore every observation →

Conditions × growth

tight conditions + growth

support + growth

stress

support, weak growth

financial conditions → growth →

Late cycleconditions -1 · growth +43 · overall +6

Most unusual conditions now

The AI build-outrestrictive · 99% covered-49

calculation

Dollar pressurerestrictive · 100% covered-43

calculation

Growth pulsesupportive · 99% covered+43

calculation

Appetite for riskmildly supportive · 100% covered+31

calculation

Thailand conditionsmildly restrictive · 100% covered-16

calculation